Relative returns to policy reform - evidence from controlled cross-country regressions

The authors aim at contributing to understand the dispersion of returns from policy reforms using cross-country regressions. The authors compare the"before reform"with"after reform"GDP growth outcome of countries that undertook import-liberalization and fiscal policy reforms. They survey a large sample (about 54) of developing countries over the period 1980-99. The benefits of openness to trade and fiscal prudence have been extensively identified in the growth literature, but the evidence from simple cross-section analysis can sometimes be inconclusive and remains vulnerable to criticism on estimation techniques, such as identification, endogeneity, multi-colinearity, and the quality of the data. The authors use a different analytical framework that establishes additional controls. First, they construct a counterfactual control group. These are countries that-under specific thresholds-did not introduce policy reforms under scrutiny. Second, the authors also try to use the most appropriate variable of policy reform, for example, exogenous changes in import-tariffs instead of the endogenous sum of all trade flows. Third, the authors try to base the before-after reform comparison on the most accurate date for the beginning of a policy reform period (instead of comparing averages over fixed intervals of time). Once these controls are set, they explain the difference between average GDP growth rates during the country-specific post and the pre-reform periods, relative to the average GDP growth of the relevant control group. The explanatory variables in the regressions include the standard growth-regression controls. The results are the following: 1) With a better measurement and timing of the policy reforms, the growth effect (the"returns on reform") is generally smaller than in previous papers. 2) There is evidence of contingent relationships between policy and growth, corresponding to the country's size, its export profile, and its governance. 2) Within the group of policy reformers, some countries have exhibited a relatively weaker growth response. Overall, the findings suggest that more accurate measurement and definition of the timing of reforms does not strengthen the significance of the effects of reforms on GDP growth. In fact, the effects are weaker than indicated in most cross-section studies. This suggests that the policy implications to be derived from these relationships should be treated with even more caution than previously thought.Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade Policy,Public Health Promotion,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade and Regional Integration

Local topology of connectome stabilizes critical points in mean field model

The interplay between structural connectivity (SC) and neural dynamics is still not yet fully understood. Applying topological analysis, the connectome approach links this anatomical network to brain function. Here we adopt a computational approach to find topology features related to the stability on global neural dynamics. A previous study of a mean field model based on the human cortex network, shows at least 2 global neural states, with either a low or high firing rate pattern. These 2 possible states, or bistability, emerge in the model within a range of the global coupling parameter G, limited by critical values G- and G +.Instituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señale

Stenosis of reverse great saphenous vein graft in infrainguinal arterial revascularization

SummaryObjectiveThe aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of hemodynamically significant infrainguinal bypasses stenosis using reverse great saphenous vein graft.MethodsFrom March of 2008 to March of 2009, 56 infrainguinal bypasses were performed with reverse great saphenous vein graft in 56 patients. On the 30th post-operative day, 32 out of 56 patients were submitted to vascular ultrasonography. The prevalence of significant graft stenosis was determined. In addition, the diagnosis of stenosis was related to the clinical and surgical characteristics of the patients. The variables analyzed at the moment of diagnosis were the localization of the graft stenosis, the risk factors associated with stenosis and the association of vascular ultrasonography findings with ankle-brachial pressure index (ABI).ResultsThe overall prevalence of significant graft stenosis was 48.4%. Out of the total number of observed stenosis, 19.4% were considered severe, and 29% mild or moderate. There was no significant association between the presence of significant stenosis and the following variables: gender, diabetes, hypertension, smoking, hipercholesterolemia, graft diameter, site of the distal anastomosis, and graft composition. There was a weak agreement between ABI and vascular ultrasonography in detecting stenosis in general (K=0.30; CL95% 0.232 - 0.473; p=0.018). However, there was a substantial agreement in detecting severe stenosis (K=0.75; CL95% 0.655 - 0.811; p=0.0001).ConclusionThere was a high prevalence of stenosis on the 30th post-operative day, mostly localized in the proximal half of the vein graft. There was no significant association of stenosis with clinical and surgical factors analyzed. ABI and vascular ultrasonography had weak agreement with the diagnosis of stenosis in general and an important agreement for the diagnosis of severe stenosis

Development and characterization of PHB-HV based 3D scaffolds for a tissue engineering and cell-therapy combinatorial approach for spinal cord Injury regeneration

Spinal cord injury (SCI) leads to devastating neurological deficits. Several tissue engineering (TE)- based approaches have been investigated for repairing this condition. Poly (3-hydroxybutyrateco- 3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHB-HV) is found to be particularly attractive for TE applications due to its properties, such as biodegradability, biocompatibility, thermoplasticity and piezoelectricity. Hence, this report addresses the development and characterization of PHB-HV-based 3D scaffolds, produced by freeze-drying, aimed to SCI treatment. The obtained scaffolds reveal an anisotropic morphology with a fully interconnected network of pores. In vitro studies demonstrate a lack of cytotoxic effect of PHB-HV scaffolds. Direct contact assays also reveal their ability to support the culture of CNS-derived cells and mesenchymal-like stem cells from different sources. Finally, histocompatibility studies show that PHB-HV scaffolds are well tolerated by the host tissue, and do not negatively impact the left hindlimb locomotor function recovery. Therefore results herein presented suggest that PHB-HV scaffolds may be suitable for SCI treatment.This study was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT; Grant no PTDC/SAU-BMA/114059/2009; PEst-C/SAU/LA0001/2013-2014 and RNEM-REDE/1506/REM/2005) and Foundation Calouste Gulbenkian, under the scope of the Gulbenkian Program to Support Cutting Edge Research in Life Sciences (A.J.S.). This work was also partially supported by the European FP7 Project Find and Bind (NMP4-SL-2009-229292). The authors would like to thank Miguel Carvalho, Fabio Teixeira, and Filipa Campos for their collaboration in in vivo experiments

Differential effect of obesity on bone mineral density in White, Hispanic and African American women: a cross sectional study

Osteoporosis is a major public health problem with low bone mass affecting nearly half the women aged 50 years or older. Evidence from various studies has shown that higher body mass index (BMI) is a protective factor for bone mineral density (BMD). Most of the evidence, however, is from studies with Caucasian women and it is unclear to what extent ethnicity plays a role in modifying the effect of BMI on BMD. A cross sectional study was performed in which records of postmenopausal women who presented for screening for osteoporosis at 2 urban medical centres were reviewed. Using logistic regression, we examined the interaction of race and BMI after adjusting for age, family history of osteoporosis, maternal fracture, smoking, and sedentary lifestyle on BMD. Low BMD was defined as T-score at the lumbar spine < -1. Among 3,206 patients identified, the mean age of the study population was 58.3 ± 0.24 (Years ± SEM) and the BMI was 30.6 kg/m(2). 2,417 (75.4%) were African Americans (AA), 441(13.6%) were Whites and 348 (10.9%) were Hispanics. The AA women had lower odds of having low BMD compared to Whites [Odds ratio (OR) = 0.079 (0.03–0.24) (95% CI), p < 0.01]. The odds ratio of low BMD was not statistically significant between White and Hispanic women. We examined the interaction between race and BMD. For White women; as the BMI increases by unity, the odds of low BMD decreases [OR = 0.9 (0.87–0.94), p < 0.01; for every unit increase in BMI]. AA women had slightly but significantly higher odds of low BMD compared to Whites [OR 1.015 (1.007–1.14), p <0.01 for every unit increase in BMI]. This effect was not observed when Hispanic women were compared to Whites. There is thus a race-dependent effect of BMI on BMD. With each unit increase in BMI, BMD increases for White women, while a slight but significant decrease in BMD occurs in African American women

Identification of a Novel Calotropis procera Protein That Can Suppress Tumor Growth in Breast Cancer through the Suppression of NF-κB Pathway

10.1371/journal.pone.0048514PLoS ONE712

Neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives Although substantial reductions in under-5 mortality have been observed during the past 35 years, progress in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) has been uneven. This paper provides an overview of child mortality and morbidity in the EMR based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods We used GBD 2015 study results to explore under-5 mortality and morbidity in EMR countries. Results In 2015, 755,844 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 712,064–801,565) children under 5 died in the EMR. In the early neonatal category, deaths in the EMR decreased by 22.4%, compared to 42.4% globally. The rate of years of life lost per 100,000 population under 5 decreased 54.38% from 177,537 (173,812–181,463) in 1990 to 80,985 (76,308–85,876) in 2015; the rate of years lived with disability decreased by 0.57% in the EMR compared to 9.97% globally. Conclusions Our findings call for accelerated action to decrease child morbidity and mortality in the EMR. Governments and organizations should coordinate efforts to address this burden. Political commitment is needed to ensure that child health receives the resources needed to end preventable deaths

Burden of cardiovascular diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2015 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

To report the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) during 1990-2015. We used the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study for estimates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of different CVD in 22 countries of EMR. A total of 1.4 million CVD deaths (95% UI: 1.3-1.5) occurred in 2015 in the EMR, with the highest number of deaths in Pakistan (465,116) and the lowest number of deaths in Qatar (723). The age-standardized DALY rate per 100,000 decreased from 10,080 in 1990 to 8606 in 2015 (14.6% decrease). Afghanistan had the highest age-standardized DALY rate of CVD in both 1990 and 2015. Kuwait and Qatar had the lowest age-standardized DALY rates of CVD in 1990 and 2015, respectively. High blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and high body mass index were the leading risk factors for CVD. The age-standardized DALY rates in the EMR are considerably higher than the global average. These findings call for a comprehensive approach to prevent and control the burden of CVD in the region.Peer reviewe

The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

© 2020 The Author(s). Background Oesophageal cancer is a common and often fatal cancer that has two main histological subtypes: oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. We report the latest estimates of these statistics for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD). Methods We used data from vital registration systems, vital registration-samples, verbal autopsy records, and cancer registries, combined with relevant modelling, to estimate the mortality, incidence, and burden of oesophageal cancer from 1990 to 2017. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were estimated and fed into a Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) including risk factors. MIRs were used for mortality and non-fatal modelling. Estimates of DALYs attributable to the main risk factors of oesophageal cancer available in GBD were also calculated. The proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancers was extracted by use of publicly available data, and its variation was examined against SDI, the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index, and available risk factors in GBD that are specific for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (eg, unimproved water source and indoor air pollution) and for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (gastro-oesophageal reflux disease). Findings There were 473 000 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 459 000-485 000) new cases of oesophageal cancer and 436 000 (425 000-448 000) deaths due to oesophageal cancer in 2017. Age-standardised incidence was 5.9 (5.7-6.1) per 100 000 population and age-standardised mortality was 5.5 (5.3-5.6) per 100 000. Oesophageal cancer caused 9.78 million (9.53-10.03) DALYs, with an age-standardised rate of 120 (117-123) per 100 000 population. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised incidence decreased by 22.0% (18.6-25.2), mortality decreased by 29.0% (25.8-32.0), and DALYs decreased by 33.4% (30.4-36.1) globally. However, as a result of population growth and ageing, the total number of new cases increased by 52.3% (45.9-58.9), from 310 000 (300 000-322 000) to 473 000 (459 000-485 000); the number of deaths increased by 40.0% (34.1-46.3), from 311 000 (301 000-323 000) to 436 000 (425 000-448 000); and total DALYs increased by 27.4% (22.1-33.1), from 7.68 million (7.42-7.97) to 9.78 million (9.53-10.03). At the national level, China had the highest number of incident cases (235 000 [223 000-246 000]), deaths (213 000 [203 000-223 000]), and DALYs (4.46 million [4.25-4.69]) in 2017. The highest national-level agestandardised incidence rates in 2017 were observed in Malawi (23.0 [19.4-26.5] per 100 000 population) and Mongolia (18.5 [16.4-20.8] per 100 000). In 2017, age-standardised incidence was 2.7 times higher, mortality 2.9 times higher, and DALYs 3.0 times higher in males than in females. In 2017, a substantial proportion of oesophageal cancer DALYs were attributable to known risk factors: tobacco smoking (39.0% [35.5-42.2]), alcohol consumption (33.8% [27.3-39.9]), high BMI (19.5% [6.3-36.0]), a diet low in fruits (19.1% [4.2-34.6]), and use of chewing tobacco (7.5% [5.2-9.6]). Countries with a low SDI and HAQ Index and high levels of indoor air pollution had a higher proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancer cases than did countries with a high SDI and HAQ Index and with low levels of indoor air pollution. Interpretation Despite reductions in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates, oesophageal cancer remains a major cause of cancer mortality and burden across the world. Oesophageal cancer is a highly fatal disease, requiring increased primary prevention efforts and, possibly, screening in some high-risk areas. Substantial variation exists in age-standardised incidence rates across regions and countries, for reasons that are unclear

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0�59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3�5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization�s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99 of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40 and wasting to less than 5 by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications. © 2020, The Author(s)